1.1China domestic melamine price trend in June

China melamine price fall after rise in June. Normal pressure product is Yn10,352/t ex-warehouse in average in China, dropping 16.04% month-on-month, 128.42% year-on-year growth. Due to melamine enterprised centralized maintenance situation, the supply decrease dramasticly. Besides raw material urea price is still in high, whcih gives support in cost. After the price gradually stabilizes, some start new purchase, and the market turnover improves significantly. Therefore, enterprises start the price increase mode again.

1.2Market forecast in July

From the perspective of raw materials, urea prices are expected to fall, but the overall will still be in a high level, so the melamine cost will continue to pull. On the other side, many melamine  enterprises in China will start work, the supply is sufficient. However, weather factors such as high temperature and humidity in summer will affect the production of the device, so it is impossible to rule out the possibility of some equipment failure. The overall average start-up load rate is expected to fluctuate around 70%. On the demand side, China is in the slack season of traditional consumption, and under the condition that raw material prices remain high, downstream factories’ production enthusiasm will be restricted to a certain extent, so it is difficult to form a strong support for the market. However, the export order continues to be strong in Europe, Turkey and other markets.

We, EASTHONY believe, China domestic melamine price is in jumping expectations, influenced by the high start and low demand. But the export side provides a positive pull, jumping price will be restricted to a certain extent. It is expected that the overall market will appear a small decline shortly, the market price will continue to go up.

Remark: The analysis is based on transaction in China’s domestic market, it’s only for reference.

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